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PHEVs emit almost 5x more global warming emissions than official figures indicate, according to a recent report.

Widening Discrepancy Between Lab and Actual Emissions

Data reveals that PHEVs release only one-fifth lower CO₂ than traditional gas and diesel vehicles, based on analysis conducted by a non-profit group. This contrasts significantly with lab estimates, which assumed a 75% decrease in emissions.

Analysts studied data from onboard fuel consumption monitors of 800,000 vehicles registered in Europe between 2021 and 2023. The team discovered that real-world CO₂ emissions from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official figures, increased from three and a half times in 2021.

“Real-world emissions are increasing, while lab-reported emissions are decreasing,” stated a lead researcher participating in the study. “That gap is widening and poses a significant issue. Consequently, PHEVs pollute nearly as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Primary Factors Driving the Emissions Gap

Analysts attributed most of the difference to inflated estimates of the “electric driving share” – the ratio of kilometers travelled in battery power relative to total mileage. They found that just 27% of travel was completed in electric mode, while lab assumptions assumed 84%.

Even, when running in electric mode, pollution levels were well above lab projections. That happened because EV motors were not strong sufficient to operate alone, resulting to engines burning gasoline for nearly one-third of the distance completed in electric mode.

Policy and Economic Implications

According to calculations, the underestimation of PHEV emissions allowed several major carmaker companies to escape over €5bn in penalties from 2021 and 2023, by falsely easing compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Furthermore, drivers of PHEVs would pay about €500 more per year in running costs than is assumed under laboratory tests.

“The bold claims that manufacturers often promote about their PHEV vehicles are obviously far from the mark,” commented a automotive expert. “Buyers are being duped into believing that by purchasing a PHEV, they are benefiting the planet and cutting money. Actually, PHEVs are only slightly better than standard gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy use, CO₂ emissions, and operating expenses.”

Policy Debate and Automotive Lobbying

Plug-in hybrid vehicles have recently been brought again into political debates as carmakers have lobbied the EU to weaken CO₂ standards. A planned ban on new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy pressure from the car industry and opposition from EU countries with significant automotive manufacturing.

Several high-level politicians have suggested PHEVs as a possible “flexibility” option to include in the regulation.

An independent energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the study, described the report a “very useful addition” after years in which segments of the automotive industry claimed there was insufficient data to accurately evaluate actual emissions.

“The results demonstrate, without question, that the gap between lab and actual PHEV energy use and CO₂ output is much, much greater than for petrol or conventional cars,” they said. “All policy changes concerning PHEVs should be implemented with utmost care and considering that evidence.”