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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the coach who engineered the largest resurgence is handed the award. In practice, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking shock.

Yet the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime underperformers improving collectively. In an normal season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining season, he's facing five other outstanding candidates.

This is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare ability. From Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged dominance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action and a innovative passing attack that springs wide receiver targets all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson came to Chicago with a defined offensive vision. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the runaway favorite. Yet this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who surrounded their staff with the perfect staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That kind of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB decision.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still