Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has got something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
